The United States Plan Before Pearl Harbor

Prior to Pearl Harbor it had been decided that, in the event of war, Germany would have to be eliminated first, and that our initial role in the Pacific would, in large measure, be defensive. But Japan's offensive capabilities were underestimated; it was thought possible to hold the Malaya barrier, successfully engage the Japanese fleet in the Central Pacific, and lay the foundations for an eventual advance against Japan itself. The United States plan had little basis in reality. With the forces then available no adequate plan of defense was possible. The loss of relatively antiquated battleships at Pearl Harbor did not substantially reduce the actual combat capabilities of our Navy at that time as opposed to the Japanese Navy with its superiority in aircraft carriers and battle line speed. To have implemented an adequate plan in December 1941 would have required better intelligence regarding Japanese intentions and capabilities, an earlier understanding of the predominant and indispensable role of air strength and full public support for the necessary appropriations, well before the actual outbreak of war.

As it developed, all that we could do prior to May 1942, apart from the resistance of our isolated forces in the Philippines and sporadic carrier and land-based air raids, was to build up our strength in Australia and the islands lying between Pearl Harbor and Australia, while bringing to fruition our training and production programs.